Tune in on Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2024 as POLITICO explores Taiwan's upcoming presidential election. The outcome of the island’s election will have profound implications for U.S.-China relations.

If Vice President Lai Ching-te wins, the victory by the Democratic Progressive Party's pro-independence candidate, who is despised by Beijing, could trigger new economic and military harassment by China's leader Xi Jinping, who threatens to reunify the island with China by force.

If he loses to the opposition candidates of the Kuomintang Party or Taiwan People's Party, then for the first time in a decade a Taiwan government will likely be more focused on building rapport with Beijing than on working with the United States to defend the island. Peace across the Taiwan Strait hangs in the balance.